Are the Texas teams just playing in Phoenix's sandbox?

"Amare Stoudamire can't be a game-changing force until next year."
"Amare Stoundamire will play tentatively."
"Amare Stoudamire will wreck the Suns' rotation chemistry."

If you uttered any of the above statements this season, you've been officially served. Last night, for the first time in almost a year, Stoudamire took the court, and he dominated. In just 19 minutes, he rang up 20 and 9, throwing in 2 blocks for kicks. Does anyone still doubt the Suns are better off with him in the mix?

It would be unwise for D'Anteethi to start ringing up 35-40 minute outings for the human pogo stick, but even if he comes off the bench for 25 minutes a night, he could easily average 15 and 8. Imagine Phoenix trotting out a crunch-time line-up of Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Amare Stoudamire. The only defensive weak link is Nash, and Stoudamire is an ideal help defender. The only offensive weak link is Bell, and that moniker's based more on past reputation than 14+ ppg he's averaging on 45% shooting.

The party line on the Suns' chances for a championship usually involve Dallas and San Antonio "beating each other up" in the second round, implying that either team would beat the Suns if they didn't have to wail on each other first. For the first time in the Nash era, I'm not sure that's true anymore.

If Tim Duncan didn't have plantar fasciitis, I doubt I'd even watch the NBA playoffs; what would be the point of suffering through round after agonizing round of boring Spurs dominance? [Editor's note: Marc is incapable of not watching the NBA playoffs, no matter what it does to his blood pressure.] But his foot is hurting, and it seems to be hindering his ability to dominate. Honestly, he hasn't got a chance in hell of keeping up with Stoudamire on one foot, and with Diaw and Bell all over Parker and Ginobili, we have to admit that the Suns have a real shot to outplay the Spurs in a series. The Mavs recently lost at home to the Suns without Amare, and the Nash/Stoudamire pick and roll was so devastating against Dallas last year, it's tough to imagine the Suns being huge underdogs in that series, either.

For all the talk of Spurs and Mavs this year, for all the overblown hype surrounding Nash and the Phoenix coaching staff, maybe it really is the year of the Sun. What with all this global warming going on, it kinda makes sense, don't it?

A heart to heart in the Knicks' locker room

According to ESPN.com, Larry Brown and Stephon Marbury met yesterday to end their feuding ways. Quotes from the two men after the alleged kiss-and-make-up session:

Larry Brown: "I want to coach him and I want to make him better and I don't want him to have to go through what he's gone through. I really was proud of the way he acted."

Starbury: "He told me to play the way he wants me to play and if I don't feel like it's the right way just bear with it. And I didn't say yes and I didn't say no."

Ding, ding ding! Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner. Congratulations to Stephon Marbury for being the first player to ever go toe-to-toe with Brown and win. The toughest challenger previous to Marbury was the other great American ballhog, Allen Iverson, but those bouts were draws at best for AI. To me, the ESPN.com article reads like something verrrrry unpleasant to/for Brown went down behind closed doors, forcing him to back-peddle. I wonder what that conversation could have looked like…

[insert Wayne’s World sound effects]

Brown: Thanks for coming, Stephon. Whacking each other in the press isn’t doing any good, so let’s clear the air and get a few things straight.

Marbury: [grabs crotch] I got something you can get straight, coach.

Brown: Please. You know what we used to do to punks like you when I was playing?

Marbury: Touch-foul ‘em while they blew by your slow ass to the cup?

Brown: [grabs Marbury by the silk collar] Don’t think that just because you were almost as hot as Sebastian Telfair growing up around here that you stand a chance against me. [shoves championship ring in Marbury’s face] The only currency that matters in this town is rings, and last I checked, you’re flat broke. So before you say one more word, just ask yourself, if things get real ugly between us, who’s got the juice?

Marbury: Your momma’s got my juice, coach.

Brown: I ordered Isiah to get me another point guard just to show you how expendable you are. I had to write it big and in crayon, and then I had to read it to him, then draw some pictures for him, but eventually he got it. Sure, all he could find was Francis, but I think the message was clear: between me and you, ownership’s backing me. So take the attitude down a notch or five. Otherwise, I’ll make sure you have a nice long career in the middle of nowhere.

Marbury: [yawns] You think I care where I get my thirteen and half million duckets, gramps?

Brown: [dials cell phone] Isiah, it’s me. …No, not daddy. It’s Larry. …Fine, you can call me daddy. Anyway, it’s time to trade Marbury. I’ve had it. He’s through. …Uh-huh. …No, I don’t think you can trade him to the Chinese. I think you have to trade him to another team in the NBA. …Yeah. …I don’t think Reggie’s playing anymore, Isiah. You’d have to try and get a guy who’s actually on their roster. …Croshere will be fine. Sure. …Okay, have a good nap. [hangs up, turns to Marbury] I hope you like the cornfields, kid. You’re outta here.

Marbury: I don’t think so.

Brown: Call Isiah and ask him yourself.

Marbury: That’s not what I mean. [pulls a photo out of his jacket pocket and slides it across the table]

Brown: [goes white] I… see. Well, then. See you on the court.

[insert Wayne’s World sound effects]

I wouldn’t presume to know what would be in such a photo, but it would have to be of Marv-Albertian proportions for him to pull a 180 like this. Feel free to speculate in the comments…

A magical night of numbers for the Mavericks

50
With an epic comeback win over the Cavs tonight, the Mavs reached 50 wins faster than any Dallas club before them.

6
Cuban's owned the team for 6 seasons, and the Mavericks have now won at least 50 games in each of them.

66-16
Avery Johnson's coaching record after 82 games is 66-16, the best full-season start in NBA history and 4 games better than Paul Westphal, who now ranks 2nd.

1-11
Dirk Nowitzki hit only 1 of his first 11 shots tonight in a hideous first half for Dallas.

11-17
Shooters keep shooting, and Dirk hit 65% of his remaining attempts, several of which were tough spinning fadeaways from the post over Drew Gooden.

19
The Mavericks were behind by almost 20 against Cleveland at the half tonight.

27-8
Dallas outscored the Cavs by 19 in the 3rd period to humiliate and frustrate LeBron and company. Marquis Daniels hassled King James while Dampier completely dominated the defensive paint.

30 pts, 13 rebs, 6 asts, 2 blks, 1 TO
vs.
36 pts, 12 rebs, 5 asts, 4 TOs, 2 blks
Dirk's line vs. LeBron's line. When Nowitzki out-passes James on the night, the odds are good the Mavericks came away with a victory.

How to make Nowitzki better against the best

Since the Rockets had such success covering Dirk Nowitzki with Tracy McGrady last year, teams all over the league have been employing the "small forward" defense on Nowitzki. If said forward is an excellent defender, like a Shawn Marion or Bruce Bowen, it often works well. This got me thinking: why haven't we seen this before, and what can the Mavericks do about it?

Under Don Nelson, the Mavericks often played Nowitzki as a center for the better part of the game. He was often paired with a small line-up like this: Steve Nash, Michael Finley, Nick Van Exel, and Juwan Howard. In other words, Dirk was usually the "biggest" Mav on the floor. To try and cover him with a small forward would have left a center or power forward on Nash, Finley, or Van Exel. Can you imagine the abuse that poor defender would have taken? It makes sense that the "small forward" defense would have been utterly untenable against the Don Nelson Mavericks.

Under Avery Johnson, Dallas has become bigger and more conventional. A center like DeSagana Diop or Erick Dampier is on the floor for at least 40 minutes a night. Avery recognizes Dirk doesn't necessarily play as a traditional power forward, so he employs a small forward with some power forward skills in Josh Howard. As a result, the Mavericks are much tougher defensively; they clog up the paint and crash the boards with authority. Unfortunately, this also leaves Dirk open to being covered by a small forward. Josh Howard can slash, but many power forwards -- guys like Amare Stoudamire, Elton Brand, Pau Gasol -- can keep up with him. And since Dallas is almost always playing with a slow-ish center, any opposing team can keep their 5-man on the Mavs' 5-man.

The common response is that Dirk should be able to post up the small forward in response to this strategy, but think about it: how much stronger is Nowitzki than Marion or McGrady or Artest? He lacks the lower body strength to consistently post up any of the sturdy small forwards. It's important for Dirk to add a low post element to his game, but unless he really adds bulk to his legs and butt, this will never be the entire answer.

It might pain Avery Johnson to hear it, but the only way to get Dirk untracked if he's struggling against a small forward is to go small. Pair him with 4 of Terry, Howard, Daniels, Stackhouse, and Harris. Make Dirk the 5 man, Howard the 4, and put 3 other guards out there. It will force teams like San Antonio to leave a bigger guy on Dirk or risk that bigger guy being killed by a guard on the perimeter. Giving Dirk a half-quarter in which he can find his rhythm against bigger defenders might settle down his game if he struggles early against a smaller man. It might help reduce his petulance, too, which would give the Mavs a big boost.

I hope you're listening, Avery. The Mavs can still field one of the best small-ball lineups in the league, and if a dash of it here and there keeps your star player's head on straight, I think it'd be worth the risk.

Nowitzki handcuffing Mavs to bedpost of runner-up

Dirk Nowitzki's comments yesterday portended ill for his performance in the biggest game of the year. Sure enough, he disappointed in a number of ways, and they all stemmed from one problem: when the going gets tough, Nowitzki gets petulant.

Think back to last year's playoffs. Dirk struggled in both rounds, and every time a team bodied up and made his life difficult, he began forcing un-set shots out of rhythm, careening out of control towards the basket to draw a foul, and screeching at teammates and refs at every turn. This came to a head in overtime of the last game of last season against the Suns, when Nowitzki was so mad Nash forced overtime that he dominated the ball, took terrible shots, and single-handedly sunk the Mavs.

Last night, Dirk did more of the same. He wasted several crucial possessions by hoisting up well-covered fade-aways off one foot or barreling into traffic and flinging the ball off the backboard, only to make a whiny face when the refs didn't reward him with a call. When the best player on the team loses his cool, how can other Mavericks be expected to maintain full confidence?

As I mentioned yesterday, Dirk is my favorite NBA baller. Overall, he's having an MVP-type year. But his one tragic flaw may doom him to 2nd-tier status against the very elite teams. Dirk must learn how to remain under control and let the game come to him if he's struggling. His gack-jobs force his teammates to shoulder the extra burdens of picking up his slack and making up for his mistakes. Until he stops making so many of the latter, it'll be hard for them to do enough of the former.

Mavs' quotes cause for optimism, concern

Sometimes Jerry Stackhouse gives you the feeling he would rip the heart out of a crippled child to win a game. Not always known for team play, he's developed a deep desire to secure a title in recent years. He's already had some buzzer-beating winners this season (like on the road vs. Boston), and when it comes to stepping up and taking on responsibility or pressure, he's always game. On the subject of tonight's match-up, Stackhouse told the DMN this:

"We're playing the world champions and we're trying to get something they have," Jerry Stackhouse said. "If anybody tries to downplay it, that's all you're doing – trying to downplay it – because this is a statement game."

Bam. There it is. He's definitely not shying away from the importance of this game on national TV against the Spurs. Guys like Terry, Howard, and even the Little General are inclined to do the same thing, and it gives Mavs fans hope that the cliched heart of a champion exists deep down in this team.

..and then there's Dirk.

Dirk is an incredible talent, an elite player, a great teammate, and capable of single-handedly killing a team with his offense. He's improved immensely on defense and made 2 stops (and 2 blocks) last week on final possessions against Sam Cassell and Mo Peterson to preserve victories.

But he also lacks just a touch of confidence. His quote today:

"It's going to be a big game, a fun game," Dirk Nowitzki said. "That's about all it is. But there's a big difference in being the first seed and the fourth seed. All we can do is go for it. Even if we should lose, there's a lot of basketball to be played."

Yeah, uh, someone should mention to Dirk that you never ever ever ever ever mention losing the game like it's no big deal. Technically, he's right. But how can he have that mindset going into the match-up and hope to draw on the kind of killer instinct he'll need to drive the dagger through their collective hearts?

On a personal note, Dirk Nowitzki is by far my favorite NBA player. Unfortunately, Dirk wants to win but it doesn't consume him. If it did, he would be incapable of uttering such disappointingly even-keeled statements. His teammates may possess enough of the desire to help him win it all, but I'm not sure a team can win a championship if their best player wouldn't rather rip out his fingernails than lose a game to his hated rivals. So while he's my favorite player and perhaps the regular season MVP, this one flaw deeply disturbs me. It'll be interesting to see if he ever grows out of it like Stackhouse did.

The draft and the disease

From Chad Ford's insight into potential #1 draft picks:
"There are two concerns that keep him [Adam Morrison] from being the runaway favorite for the No. 1 pick.
First, he's average at best athletically. While it doesn't seem to bother him too much on offense (though it might at the next level), he doesn't get it done on the defensive end in college -- so you can imagine the problems he's likely to have in the pros.
Second, he has diabetes. While he seems to have it under control right now, how will the rigors of an NBA season affect him? Right now, there isn't a good answer. "

We all know Adam Morrison gets bum-rushed on the defensive end. He'll handle McGrady, Pierce, or Josh Howard like FEMA on a hurricane. He could very well be the Shawn Bradley of small forwards: the guy who winds up on the most NBA posters for the wrong reasons.

But did you know about the diabetes thing? I didn't. Apparently, I'm just out of the loop. Andy Katz presciently refuted Ford's claims a few weeks ago, explaining how Morrison expects to cope with the disease at the next level. In the article, Morrison himself points out that he played a remarkably demanding Maui Invitational and suffered no ill effects from 120+ minutes in 3 days. He also has "an army" of nutritionists and helpers, as well as a rigid eating/sleeping schedule he follows religiously.

I can't stand slow NBA players on the wing, so you won't see me clamoring for the Rockets or anyone else to jump on the Morrison bandwagon in the top 10 of the draft. But it seems odd to me that Ford would select the diabetes issue as Morrison's yellowest caution flag. While I only play a sports doctor on the web, it's my opinion that if a team is somehow willing to pay max dollars for Eddy Curry's uninsurably explosive ticker, Adam Morrison's diabetes won't knock him off too many lists. Of course, as much as I love Ford's writing, he's the guy who clamored for Darko over LeBron/Anthony/Bosh/Wade/Ford (even Kaman would've been better) and Marvin Williams over Chris Paul, so maybe it's best he's teaching law in Hawaii these days.

Incidentally, the Rockets are probably beginning to think about the lottery these days, so texasnba.com is proud to present its initial top 10 draft prospects. Unfortunately, because the age limit kicks in this year, the 2006 class will be the weakest group in years, and please note that our rankings are based on our talent evaluations, not where they'll be drafted.

Without further delay, your shallow crop of elite prospects:
1) LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Texas
I love his size, touch, board work, and weakside help defense. There's nothing Chris Bosh did in school that Aldridge isn't doing as well or better. His underrated range already extends to 18 feet and he can get his post-up fadeaway off against anyone under 8 feet tall. He's a bit passive at times, but so was Bosh.
2) Rajon Rondo, PG, Kentucky
If you like Devin Harris, you'll love Rajan Rondo. Those who are letting Kentucky's 05-06 collapse affect their opinion of Rondo are far too shortsighted. Expect him to be a playmaking defender you won't be able to keep off the court by midway through his rookie year.
3) Julian Wright, PF, Kansas
ESPN alluded to Wright as a Garnett-type. I see more of a lean Amare Stoudamire, a long kid who never runs out of energy on either end. He's got good basketball smarts, too, having played PG in high school by necessity for a while. Talent + brains = success.
4) Al Horford, PF, Florida
Sometimes the NBA out-thinks itself. This kid loves to work down low and plays just like Zach Randolph coming out of school. Unlike Randolph, he's not rotund and there's a decent chance he won't break teammates' faces. Whoever lands this future post force in the mid-teens of the draft will score quite a steal.
5) Brandon Rush, SG, Kansas
Most boards have him in the late first right now, but the frosh is shooting 50% from the floor... and 50% from downtown. He gets his shot with ease, kills the boards for a guard, and has NBA size. Anyone who claims his upside is limited must've been one of the guys who let Paul Pierce slide to #10 in 1998.
6) Rodney Carney, SF, Memphis
I wish he would rebound better -- his average has fallen each of the last 3 years. Of course, his shooting percentage has climbed almost 10% over that time. Great scorer with outstanding athleticism. Could come in and average 10+ppg right away with plenty of room to grow.
7) Shelden Williams, PF, Duke
Baby Fish Mouth can bang. The ultimate dirty-work enforcer. As an aside, when doing an image search for "Shelden Williams," a picture of Admiral Ackbar came up on the first page. I sh*t thee not.
8) Curtis Stinson, PG, Iowa State
The only knock on this strong, aggressive playmaker is his jump shot. Well, I'll take a guy with an eye for the passing lanes who can already post up most NBA PGs. Has shutdown defensive potential.
9) Ronnie Brewer, SG, Arkansas
Like Stinson, it's a question of the jump shot. When you play SG, that's a bigger concern, though, isn't it? Still, it's hard to ignore his great hands and slashing skills. He can play spot point duty like Marquis Daniels, too, which doesn't hurt. [awkward pause] I said it was a shallow class, didn't I?
10) Some International Player I Haven't Seen
Not much I can do about that.

Notable exclusions:
Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga
I like to think you've read everything to this point.
Rudy Gay, SF, UConn
No heart. No guts. No leadership. Nobody gets less out of more. I'll pass.