Friday, March 03, 2006

How to make Nowitzki better against the best

Since the Rockets had such success covering Dirk Nowitzki with Tracy McGrady last year, teams all over the league have been employing the "small forward" defense on Nowitzki. If said forward is an excellent defender, like a Shawn Marion or Bruce Bowen, it often works well. This got me thinking: why haven't we seen this before, and what can the Mavericks do about it?

Under Don Nelson, the Mavericks often played Nowitzki as a center for the better part of the game. He was often paired with a small line-up like this: Steve Nash, Michael Finley, Nick Van Exel, and Juwan Howard. In other words, Dirk was usually the "biggest" Mav on the floor. To try and cover him with a small forward would have left a center or power forward on Nash, Finley, or Van Exel. Can you imagine the abuse that poor defender would have taken? It makes sense that the "small forward" defense would have been utterly untenable against the Don Nelson Mavericks.

Under Avery Johnson, Dallas has become bigger and more conventional. A center like DeSagana Diop or Erick Dampier is on the floor for at least 40 minutes a night. Avery recognizes Dirk doesn't necessarily play as a traditional power forward, so he employs a small forward with some power forward skills in Josh Howard. As a result, the Mavericks are much tougher defensively; they clog up the paint and crash the boards with authority. Unfortunately, this also leaves Dirk open to being covered by a small forward. Josh Howard can slash, but many power forwards -- guys like Amare Stoudamire, Elton Brand, Pau Gasol -- can keep up with him. And since Dallas is almost always playing with a slow-ish center, any opposing team can keep their 5-man on the Mavs' 5-man.

The common response is that Dirk should be able to post up the small forward in response to this strategy, but think about it: how much stronger is Nowitzki than Marion or McGrady or Artest? He lacks the lower body strength to consistently post up any of the sturdy small forwards. It's important for Dirk to add a low post element to his game, but unless he really adds bulk to his legs and butt, this will never be the entire answer.

It might pain Avery Johnson to hear it, but the only way to get Dirk untracked if he's struggling against a small forward is to go small. Pair him with 4 of Terry, Howard, Daniels, Stackhouse, and Harris. Make Dirk the 5 man, Howard the 4, and put 3 other guards out there. It will force teams like San Antonio to leave a bigger guy on Dirk or risk that bigger guy being killed by a guard on the perimeter. Giving Dirk a half-quarter in which he can find his rhythm against bigger defenders might settle down his game if he struggles early against a smaller man. It might help reduce his petulance, too, which would give the Mavs a big boost.

I hope you're listening, Avery. The Mavs can still field one of the best small-ball lineups in the league, and if a dash of it here and there keeps your star player's head on straight, I think it'd be worth the risk.

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