Post-All-Star Game Burning Question #2: Would the Mavs be better off as the #1 or #4 seed in the West?

We all know the current playoff seeding system stinks. Next year, it probably won't work this way, thank god. But in 2006, because the Spurs and Mavs are in the same division, only one can claim the division title and #1 seed. The other will be relegated to a "wild card" spot as the 4th seed. Either way, they're almost certainly going to meet in the second round; now it's merely a question of who will have home-court advantage in the series.

Everybody likes to be #1. In the case of the Western Conference playoffs, though, first won't necessarily pit you against the worst. It'll also burden you with any number of expectations to which you can fail to live up, especially knowing that the defending champions will likely come calling in the second round.

So which is it? Would the Mavs be better off as the #1 or the #4? Let's break it down scientifically.

Which seed will have the tougher first round match-up?
Obviously, we don't know who will make the playoffs and where yet, but as I mentioned yesterday, I'm predicting the Lakers to sneak into that last spot down the stretch. If it isn't the Lakers, it'll be Houston. The 5th seed should come down to either Memphis or the Clippers. Obviously, the Mavs already eked out a series win against roughly the same Houston squad last year, and they would be favored over the 1-man Lakers squad as well as the Grizzlies/Clips. Still, of the two groups of two, one clearly seems preferable -- that would be the group without any top 5 players in the league, without any coaches looking for their 10th ring, without any elite centers, and without any experience winning in the first round or even making the playoffs. Look, McGrady nearly beat the Mavs single-handed last year, and it's possible Kobe could average 65 points in the series and get it done. It's possible. Short of 3 series-ending injuries to the Mavs, does anyone think the Clippers or Grizzlies could win the series? I didn't think so.

Can the Mavs handle the pressure of the top seed?
Any time the #1 seed doesn't make the conference finals, that team is tagged as an underachiever. Would there be any shame in losing to the Spurs? Of course not. Would the Mavs tighten up if they're "expected" to advance past San Antonio, according to their seed? Seems plausible. The Spurs have everyone spooked. If you think about it, they're a fluky Derek Fisher jumper from defending 3 straight titles. Acting the role of the hungry underdog, feeling gypped as the 4th seed despite winning 60+ games, and playing with nothing to lose could be a big mental advantage. Coming in as the "dissed" #2 team helped the Texas Longhorns find motivation to up-end USC in the Rose Bowl, and that mentality could also aid Dallas in the semi-finals. Stealing a road game from the Spurs could build momentum towards a series win; losing one of the first two at home could wreck their confidence. It's always easier to play spoiler.

Does beating the Spurs in the regular season mean anything?
The easy answer here is "no." But I'm not so sure. In the Tim Duncan era, the Mavericks have never finished ahead of the Spurs in the standings. The year the two met in the Western finals, both teams won 62 games but Dallas still finished second to San Antonio on a tiebreaker. Dallas has no division titles under Mark Cuban. Taking anything from the Spurs would be a critical first step to establishing equality between the two teams. Also, while they might tighten up this year as the top seed, it's far better to go through that ASAP and get it out of your system for subsequent title runs. So, yeah, everyone wants to poo-poo the NBA regular season, but winning the division over the Spurs could be an important step in the long-term evolution of the Mavs.

For this season alone, it might be easier to play with the underdog chip on their shoulder, but if the Mavs are serious about remaining in annual contention for a championship, learning how to play as the top seed is a must. So I say they'd be better off laying it all on the line to take the top seed and let the chips fall where they may.

Can they beat the Spurs? Yes. Will they beat the Spurs? Who knows. But if the Mavs make it to a game 7 in Dallas, I like their odds. Too bad that win wouldn't seal the NBA Finals berth it should.