Close games could be bad sign

The Mavs are 19-4 in games decided by single digits. That's a great mark... if you're 50 games into the season. If you happen to have played only 32 games, though, it's cause for concern. The Mavs have only been involved in 9 games with margin greater than 10, but more alarmingly, only 4 of their wins have come by that amount. When you have the third-most wins in the league, that suggests you have trouble closing games out.

On Monday night, Stackhouse hit an incredible baseline jumper with .1 seconds left to win in Beantown. Of course, the Mavs had a 12 point lead with under 5 minutes to play, so it shouldn't have come to that, should it?

Ditto the previous win over Denver. The Mavs were up by 6 or more for much of the fourth, but down the stretch they wilted on both ends and let the Nugs push them to OT. Again, kudos to the Mavs for keeping after it and gutting out a big road win, but the game should've been won in regulation.

Why is this happening? Why are the Mavs struggling to close teams out? Well, I'll tell you: they can't pass.

John Hollinger's assist numbers show the Mavs as the second-worst passing team in the league, ahead of only the Knicks. Yikes. And they're only ahead by a tenth of an assist per game. The Magic are almost half an assist per game ahead of the Mavs.

When the fourth draws to a close, teams really tighten up their defense. As a result, the Mavs have trouble scoring the way they usually do in a game: one-on-one penetration off screens. The Mavs players suddenly get double-teamed and aren't so adept at (or used to) passing the ball and finding the open man. I haven't been able to find a quarter-by-quarter breakdown of turnover stats yet, but you can bet the Mavs throw it away the most in the fourth.

Remember how hard it was for the Mavs to score in the playoffs? That's because teams play that kind of intense D for every possession, not just down the stretch. And it appears they could be headed for the same struggles again.

When the game comes down to a single possession, the Mavs have repeatedly found ways to score. It's been impressive. But it shouldn't have to come to that in many of the games they've played so far this year, and when they're up against the Spurs in round 2, they're going to wish they could sling that ball around the horn a little better.