NBA draft preview: Noah v. Thomas v. Aldridge

Another season of college ball has come and gone, and NBA scouts are thoroughly assessing the potential of several NBA prospects. This will be the first season high-schoolers won't be eligible for entry into the draft, meaning the thin crop has teams nervous about finding a player with the talent to fit their draft position. TexasNBA.com will be updating our overall top 10 soon, but the three most-discussed players following the tournament have been Florida's do-it-all 7-footer Joakim Noah, LSU's jumping jack PF Tyrus Thomas, and Texas' smooth-shooting post man LaMarcus Aldridge. None of them have officially declared for the draft yet, but with guys like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant likely to hit the market next year, this may be their best chance to lock up a spot in the top 5 of the draft. In fact, they could easily go 1-2-3 in some order this summer. To help the GMs out there avoid a mistake like, oh, I dunno, Marvin Williams over Chris Paul, let's sort out what that order should be.

One caveat for all 3 players: strength is an issue. Each has the height and frame to play the 4 in the NBA, but none have the bulk -- yet. This impacts the play of one more than the others, but I don't see anything that leads me to believe that a year of NBA conditioning won't get each of them into the right weight class, so I'm not going to hold it against any of them... well, 2 of them, anyway.

Noah
By halftime he'd set the record for most blocks in the championship game, so to say he's an instinctive weak-side defender goes without saying, huh? He's an intense, competitive kid, and his teammates point to his energy as a motivating force for the team. He's also got a wacky streak, as evidenced by his complaints about the NBA game being boring, but if your Dad was a French tennis-turned-pop star, you might be a touch unusual yourself. Noah doesn't need the money, either, so I'm sure he feels free to speak his mind. He passes quite well for a big and finishes well at the basket. Unfortunately, his shot looks like a slow child imitating Reggie Miller, and it's going to need some work at the next level. If you're a thin PF, you need range to 18 feet to be effective in the league, so this should be the major focus of any draft prep; right now I wouldn't trust him outside of the paint. Of all 3 players, Noah has the highest floor. At the very least, if you had to play him in an NBA game today, he'd be a taller, quicker Najera: an energetic sub who does a little bit of everything. Whether he becomes a franchise cornerstone depends on his willingness to develop a varied offensive game.

Thomas
He's the measurables stud. His frame and vertical leap are off the charts, and his alley-oop finishes and posterizing blocks will leave scouts salivating. I like his man defense more than the other two, and obviously he's no slouch at helping out, either. The kid has a nose for the ball; it almost seems to find him. His major albatross will be the Stromile Swift comparisons. Is Thomas just another LSU pogo stick with no basketball IQ? He lost time due to an injury, as well, and unless he plays a full sophomore season, scouts will also have to wonder if he's got durability issues. He's the biggest unknown of the 3 players. He's just a freshman, didn't play a full season, and was the third fiddle on his college team.

Aldridge
He's almost got the "Dream Shake" down already -- when he posts up for a fadeaway turnaround, he's unblockable. And he hits a very high percentage of them. He's a smart kid, a good kid, a decent rebounder, and he faces up from about 18 feet reliably. He's by far the most offensively polished of the forwards and could probably average 12ppg in the league right now. Still, he's the guy who could be hurt most by his lack of strength; if he can't get position 6-8 feet from the basket for his turnaround, he'll be too far away to get it off. He's also the least passionate, most passive personality of the 3. Coach Rick Barnes spent all season trying to develop Aldridge's aggressiveness, but it never really stuck. Barnes also worked to develop Aldridge's sky hook, but despite its success when he used it, Aldridge never felt comfortable with it and trotted it out only occasionally as a result. This suggests he may lack the work ethic to improve his game. If Aldridge just wants to stick to what already feels comfortable, who's to say he'll ever get any better?

Ranking the players
I think you have to go with the above order: Noah, Thomas, Aldridge. Noah can help you right now, he's sharp and passionate, and he has a chance to be somewhere between a Tayshaun Prince and a Ben Wallace on defense. If his offense comes along, he'll average 15 easy, and if he ever gets to 20, he'll be a franchise player. Would I be thrilled he's the best I could do at #1 if I won the NBA lottery? No. But he'll do. Thomas and Aldridge both scare me. I like Thomas's athleticism and defensive instincts, and I like Aldridge's smooth offensive game, but neither look like they'll develop into complete players to me. Still, in this draft, taking a guy who has a chance to dominate one side of the ball will have to do, so give me the athletic freak with a little more fire in Thomas. Aldridge would have to prove he's got a mean streak for me to consider moving him up, and the poor kid's just too much of a puppy dog to even be able to fake it.

Much to the NBA's chagrin, Noah's the least likely to leave, but if he does, scoop him up at #1 and don't look back.