Tuesday, April 04, 2006

The Webber Syndrome strikes the East Coast

Jiminy jeepers. Everybody -- and I mean everybody -- is ready to proclaim the Nets a title contender just because they've strung together a few wins in a row. Okay, sure, they've strung together 12 wins in a row, and that's impressive. The streak includes victories over Detroit, Dallas, the Lakers, the Grizzlies, and the Heat, too, so props for those notches on the belt. Even better, the April schedule for the Nets gets gooey-soft with home games against ATL, CHA, CLE, PHL, BOS, and NY and roadies against MIL, CHI, BOS, and PHI. The Nets will be favored in every one of those games and could end the season winning 21 of their last 22 or some such thing. The talking heads will have a field day touting them as a dark horse candidate to claim a ring, but would any of the "real" teams in the league fear a series with the Nets?

Certainly, Jason Kidd still has to be taken seriously at the point. While his quickness has suffered with age, few teams in the league would be sad to have him running the floor. Jefferson isn't as impossible to score on as gets credit for, but his offense is vastly improved. He's essentially a 20 ppg scorer on 50% shooting, and those are few and far between in these "please, dude, can you at least make 4 of 10 tonight?" days of the NBA. Jefferson also passes well, but not as well as Vince Carter. I doubt too many people would argue that Kidd isn't the team MVP, but they win 60% of their games when Kidd plays and 66% of their games when Carter plays. When he makes an effort and remembers to drive instead of lob fade-aways from 3, he's an unguardable beast who makes other players better. Much as he's known for soft defense, he and Jefferson appear to be on level ground: opposing SGs and SFs each average a PER of 14.5, which is below the league average. Given that both Carter and Jefferson play more than 37 mpg, the responsibility for guarding opposing wing players falls squarely on the two of them.

As good as those three are on the perimeter, the New Jersey frontcourt is lacking. C Nenad Krstic wins the Juwan Howard Award for crappiest rebounds per minute; he can't even muster 7 in over 30 mpg. Then again, Cliff Robinson and Jason Collins average 50 minutes combined. Rebounds combined? 8. Yowtch. The "big three" make up for it, though, and the Nets' 40.8 rebounds per game falls in the middle of the NBA pack. Improbably, Detroit averages even fewer boards than the Nets, though they each outrebounded the other twice this year.

The bench sucks out loud, too. Tell me who from this list you'd covet for your team:
-Clifford Robinson
-Jacque Vaughn
-Zoran Planinic
-Your Mom
Yeah. Lame jokes aside, that motley crew makes the Pistons' subs look like the All-Star reserves. Brutal.

So they have little up front, nothing off the bench, and 3 studs. Can 3 studs win a championship? Michael, Scottie, and Dennis/Horace would say yes. Unfortunately, while Kidd and Jefferson do everything Scottie plus the Chicago PFs did (and then some), no one's going to confuse Vince Carter for MJ.

That's the bottom line, Nets fans: your best player lacks heart. He's proven as likely to fold as bail his team out, and no one's ever accused Vince of putting basketball first. When you need a play to win a game, would you rather lean on Chauncey Billups or Vince Carter?

The Nets suffer from Chris Webber Syndrome: their best player is a statistical monster that can't get it done at crunch time. Mike Bibby bailed out the Kings from time to time, just like Kidd can, but if your go-to guy isn't clutch, eventually it'll bite you in the ass. Just ask Sacramento fans.

So the Nets are the new Kings. All hail the Nets.

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