Nowitzki making a case for MVP

"Was it 19? Dang, I didn't know it was that big," Nowitzki said.

And yet it was. Down 50-31 in the second quarter against Memphis last night, Dallas put on a second half show and pulled a 97-87 victory from the fires of defeat. The win had big German fingerprints all over it, too. Consider:
*At their lowest point, Nowitzki scored 8 crucial points to get them back in the game before halftime.
*Down 58-54, he nailed consecutive jumpers, one from downtown, in a 30-second span to give the Mavs their first real lead of the night.
*He had 4 blocks in the second half, 2 on separate possessions late in the third when the Grizzlies made a push to re-acquire the lead.

This comes on the heels of a game he single-handedly saved against the Clippers, too. In the fourth quarter:
*Nowitzki scored on 3 consecutive possessions to push the lead to 92-84 with 5:58 left. Except for 1 free throw scored by Stackhouse with 1 second left, those would be the final Dallas points of the game.
*During that cold stretch, Dirk kept the game close by collecting 6 defensive rebounds in the last 6 minutes.
*With 6 seconds left, he completely shut down Sam Cassell on the perimeter, forcing him into a jumper that he partially blocked to preserve Dallas' 1-point lead.

In one game, he made the final scoring push before doing the dirty work needed to help his team preserve a win when the shots and free throws stopped falling at the worst possible time. In the next, he played the starring role in a huge comeback. Thanks to Nowitzki, the Mavs now have a franchise-record 13-game home winning streak and are a win away from playing .800 ball.

If the Mavericks somehow retain the top seed in the West and finish no more than a few games back of Detroit (which plays a much easier Eastern Conference schedule), it will be hard to dispute Dirk Nowitzki's legitimate claim to the MVP Trophy. Heck, given his remarkable defensive turnaround, you could make a case he's the Most Improved Player, too.

There's always more room in the trophy case.

Post-All-Star Game Burning Question #3: Do the Spurs have any burning questions?

Honestly, I'd like to give the Spurs more attention in general, but they provide little in the way of controversy, failure, or pizzazz. (Interestingly, dictionary.com considers pizzaz, pizazz, and pizzazz valid spellings, but however you spell it, the Spurs lack it.) Coming up with a burning question to answer has been difficult, and, frankly, if I were a Spurs fan, I'd consider that a good thing.

Shouldn't they be worried about losing the top seed to the Mavs?
Pffft. Yes, it would mean something to Dallas to get over the hump against San Antonio in the regular season, but the Spurs couldn't -- and shouldn't -- care less about home court in the second round. They closed out their last playoff meeting in Dallas on the back of Steve Kerr's 4 4th-quarter 3-pointers. They've already won a close, physical contest filled with post-season intensity in Big D this season. The only guys on their roster without at least one ring are former Mavs Van Exel and Finley. And remember, because of the convoluted way the NBA handles its playoffs, the Spurs would probably have home court against Phoenix in the conference finals. Unless they're terrified of playing on the road against Dallas, which they aren't, being the 4th seed won't be much of a downer.

Shouldn't they be worried about the lingering injuries to their star players?
If they absolutely had to gut out the top seed, yes. But if they're worried about Tim Duncan's plantar fasciitis, they can rest him in April and coast into the 4th seed. Heck, as occasional texasnba.com contributer Ben points out, San Antonio could rest Duncan in the first round and still advance with ease. Ginobili's always dinged up, but he thrives on physical contact and has no qualms about playing with pain.

It's possible the pain in Duncan's foot will wear him out in the playoffs. But for the purposes of this piece, we're only worried about burning questions as they relate to the rest of the regular season, and the Spurs' injuries aren't cause for concern yet.

Well, they suddenly have the worst center tandem in Texas. How about that?
Okay, that is a little weird, seeing as how this is the Team David Robinson Built. Given that they play Duncan almost exclusively at the four, the Spurs are left with Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesuckovic to man the middle. I doubt many Spurs fans would take issue with Yao Ming and Dikembe Mutombo being considered the strongest center pairing in the Lone Star State, but Dallas's DeSagana Diop and the newly revitalized Erick Dampier are outplaying both of the San Antonio big men, too. In fact, since his benching, Dampier leads the league in boards per 48 minutes, collecting more than 9 per game despite averaging less than 30 minutes a night.

The frontcourt has traditionally been an advantage for the Spurs, but with Nowitzki, Howard, and their centers, the Mavs may have them beat. Fortunately for the black and silver, the backcourt of Parker and Ginobili knows no equal. In other words, leave the centers to the runners-up and let that guard tandem carry you to the Finals.

Post-All-Star Game Burning Question #2: Would the Mavs be better off as the #1 or #4 seed in the West?

We all know the current playoff seeding system stinks. Next year, it probably won't work this way, thank god. But in 2006, because the Spurs and Mavs are in the same division, only one can claim the division title and #1 seed. The other will be relegated to a "wild card" spot as the 4th seed. Either way, they're almost certainly going to meet in the second round; now it's merely a question of who will have home-court advantage in the series.

Everybody likes to be #1. In the case of the Western Conference playoffs, though, first won't necessarily pit you against the worst. It'll also burden you with any number of expectations to which you can fail to live up, especially knowing that the defending champions will likely come calling in the second round.

So which is it? Would the Mavs be better off as the #1 or the #4? Let's break it down scientifically.

Which seed will have the tougher first round match-up?
Obviously, we don't know who will make the playoffs and where yet, but as I mentioned yesterday, I'm predicting the Lakers to sneak into that last spot down the stretch. If it isn't the Lakers, it'll be Houston. The 5th seed should come down to either Memphis or the Clippers. Obviously, the Mavs already eked out a series win against roughly the same Houston squad last year, and they would be favored over the 1-man Lakers squad as well as the Grizzlies/Clips. Still, of the two groups of two, one clearly seems preferable -- that would be the group without any top 5 players in the league, without any coaches looking for their 10th ring, without any elite centers, and without any experience winning in the first round or even making the playoffs. Look, McGrady nearly beat the Mavs single-handed last year, and it's possible Kobe could average 65 points in the series and get it done. It's possible. Short of 3 series-ending injuries to the Mavs, does anyone think the Clippers or Grizzlies could win the series? I didn't think so.

Can the Mavs handle the pressure of the top seed?
Any time the #1 seed doesn't make the conference finals, that team is tagged as an underachiever. Would there be any shame in losing to the Spurs? Of course not. Would the Mavs tighten up if they're "expected" to advance past San Antonio, according to their seed? Seems plausible. The Spurs have everyone spooked. If you think about it, they're a fluky Derek Fisher jumper from defending 3 straight titles. Acting the role of the hungry underdog, feeling gypped as the 4th seed despite winning 60+ games, and playing with nothing to lose could be a big mental advantage. Coming in as the "dissed" #2 team helped the Texas Longhorns find motivation to up-end USC in the Rose Bowl, and that mentality could also aid Dallas in the semi-finals. Stealing a road game from the Spurs could build momentum towards a series win; losing one of the first two at home could wreck their confidence. It's always easier to play spoiler.

Does beating the Spurs in the regular season mean anything?
The easy answer here is "no." But I'm not so sure. In the Tim Duncan era, the Mavericks have never finished ahead of the Spurs in the standings. The year the two met in the Western finals, both teams won 62 games but Dallas still finished second to San Antonio on a tiebreaker. Dallas has no division titles under Mark Cuban. Taking anything from the Spurs would be a critical first step to establishing equality between the two teams. Also, while they might tighten up this year as the top seed, it's far better to go through that ASAP and get it out of your system for subsequent title runs. So, yeah, everyone wants to poo-poo the NBA regular season, but winning the division over the Spurs could be an important step in the long-term evolution of the Mavs.

For this season alone, it might be easier to play with the underdog chip on their shoulder, but if the Mavs are serious about remaining in annual contention for a championship, learning how to play as the top seed is a must. So I say they'd be better off laying it all on the line to take the top seed and let the chips fall where they may.

Can they beat the Spurs? Yes. Will they beat the Spurs? Who knows. But if the Mavs make it to a game 7 in Dallas, I like their odds. Too bad that win wouldn't seal the NBA Finals berth it should.

Post-All-Star Game Burning Question #1: Will the Rockets make the post-season?

...and they're off! With 30 games or less left for each team in the regular season, they're all doing a little more scoreboard-watching to see if they can gain -- or avoid losing -- any last-minute regular season ground.

One team many predict will make a major move is the Houston Rockets. Prior to the face-pounding from Phoenix on Thursday night, Houston had won 8 of their last 9. Yao and McGrady are back in action, and despite ranking 13th in the West today, they are less than 5 games back of the 8th seed, the Lakers.

But can they do it? Are the stars aligned for a big push towards an epic first-round series with the Mavs or Spurs? Let's examine the factors in play and see if we can't draw a proper conclusion.

How tough is their schedule?
The Rockets have 5 games remaining against Dallas and San Antonio, but they play those teams tough and figure to take at least 2 of them. They only have 12 roadies left, and 6 of those are in one trip at the beginning of April. Normally, that would be a good thing, but the Rockets are almost .500 on the road and have won only 8 games at home. Houston plays 5 games in April against the teams ahead of them in the race for 8th, giving them a chance to make up ground down the stretch. Most of those are part of the long road trip, and if they maintain their solid road play, they have a chance to help themselves. Overall, the Rockets have a realistic shot of going 19-8 over the final 27, which would give them a 42-40 record at the end of the year.

How tough are the teams ahead of them?
Minnesota's burying themselves, so count them out. Golden State plays Mike Dunleavy 30 minutes a night, and I'm going out on a limb and saying no team will ever make the playoffs doing that. Jerry Sloan finally broke Deron Williams, who looks shell-shocked every time he steps on the floor now. Pretty hard to win games when your PG dives under the scorer's table every time the coach clears his throat.

That brings us to Sacramento and the Lakers. Since the arrival of Artest, the Kings have fundamentally altered the way they play offense. Much less motion, much less ball movement -- now they just isolate Ronnie and let him work. Improbably, that has led to a 6-5 mark and could be a sign they've got life left. Still, the whole team knows Adelman is done, and Bibby's going to freak if he continues to be forced to stand around as a spot-up shooter collecting Artest's scraps. Expect them to finish around 40 wins.

The Lakers have collapsed since the big 8-1, winning only 3 of their last 10. All the trade talk isn't helping matters, and if the rumored Odom-for-Francis swap happens, Phil Jackson can book his trip to Katmandu or Jeannie Buss's bosom or wherever the hell he goes to cocoon between seasons. If they keep the present unit, though, it wouldn't surprise me to see Kobe and friends put on a show down the stretch and eke out a playoff berth.

There's also a team above the Lakers right now that might be running on fumes. Don't assume NO/OKC is a lock for the playoffs; they're recent win streak coincides with a lot of home games against bad Eastern Conference teams. They have a tough April and could slip under .500 by the end of the year.

What about the Rockets themselves? Can they do it?
This is the hardest question to answer. The Rockets are 22-18 when T-Mac plays; nice, but not eye-opening. Factor in McGrady's cryptic ruminations on Friday, when he claimed this season has been extremely difficult for him due to an undisclosed personal issue. It didn't sound like this issue was over and done with, either, so it's possible he'll be distracted over the next few months. Yao's pretty much the same player he's always been -- passive at times, dominant in short spurts, and still giving off the general impression that he's only 85% as good as he could be. Obviously, those two have almost no help, and a draft pick that would allow them to collect a dirty-work power forward could be better for the team than eking into the playoffs with both franchise players at less than perfect health.

Shut up already. Will they do it?
While they *could* win 19 games down the stretch, the Rockets' formula for success seems too fragile. 17 or 16 wins seems more reasonable, which would likely leave them a game or two short of the final playoff spot this season. One star is distracted, either could tweak any number of injuries, and no other player can shoulder the burden. The Hornets, Lakers, and even the Kings seem to want it just a little more this year. But if you see a Rockets team with Marco Killingsworth on it next year, the near miss could be a blessing in disguise.

"Damn RIGHT the Rockets could use me."

Steve Kerr's on the pipe

First off, I've had a lot of writing related projects on my plate, which has prevented me from doing daily updates. I fully intend to pick up steam, though, so fear not my few, dear readers.

It's actually really easy to want to post something (or is that punch something?) when you read mid-season award columns from morons like Steve Kerr. Any guesses as to what has me so upset about the following accolade?
"Coach of the Year: Flip Saunders – This was the perfect storm: A deep, talented team motivated by barely missing out on a championship last season (and the untimely exit of their hard-driving coach) meets up with a more laidback leader with a love for offensive basketball. Saunders has been the perfect man to guide the Pistons, and he has Detroit running away from the rest of the league. Saunders edges out Phoenix's Mike D'Antoni, who won the award last year but is doing an even better job this season. His offensive innovation is making stars out of a roster full of Suns. "

My previous post illustrates all you need to know about Avery Johnson. The Pistons are now only 1.5 games up on the Mavs and slipping, with 3 losses in their last 10 games. Not exactly "running away," last I checked. The Pistons are tweaking their identity; the Mavs have completely remade theirs, yet Dallas remains at the top of the Western Conference heap. Speaking of conferences, which team has to play a tougher schedule night in and night out? Which coach has had more injury troubles to deal with? And which team was generally picked to finish in the bottom half of their conference's playoff teams at the start of the season?

That's what I thought.

As we've noted in this space, Flip is doing a very good job, but not picking Avery for this "award" is a crime. Putting D'Antoni as the runner-up ahead of AJ qualifies Kerr for a capital read-end-kicking.

Bad boy, Steve. Bad boy.

AJ off to fastest start ever

Avery Johnson recently collected his 50th coaching victory, and it took him only 62 games to do it. Previously, Al Cervi and some guy named Red Auerbach each racked up 50 wins in 63 games, and both did it before the end of 1951. In the last 50+ years, no one's come close to the start of those two, but this year, Avery Johnson actually beat them to the punch. He reached 50 wins faster than anyone in NBA history.

The accolades don't stop there. Avery won the coach of the month honors in April, his first full month in the league, and again in November. Yesterday, he was named January's coach of the month. After extensive research by the texasnba.com science department, we've concluded that AJ has now won 3 of the 4 coach of the month awards for which he was eligible. Have you ever heard of that happening before?

Avery Johnson's success in Dallas has been one of the most under-reported stories in the league. He's racking up trophies and making history. The Mavs are in the middle of a complete identity make-over, yet they're tied at the top of the conference with the defending champs. Phil Jackson's doing a fine job in LA, Flip Saunders has taken a champion and given it some offensive teeth, and Larry Brown's doing, uh, hey, at least he hasn't quit yet. But Avery Johnson deserves to be the headliner for Coach of the Year thus far.

Speaking of Flip and Avery, I'm developing a pet theory about NBA coaching. Frequently, a one-dimensional team peaks under a coach and then plateaus. Dallas had gone as far as Don Nelson's all-offense approach was going to take them. The Pistons won a title with hard-nosed D but when they ran into another defensive juggernaut with a bit more firepower, Detroit came up short. In both cases, bringing in a coach with the opposite style of his predecessor has paid dividends. Neither team has lost sight of their original emphasis; the Mavs are 7th in scoring and the Pistons give up the 3rd-fewest points in the association. But each team has also bought into the identity of their new leader and developed a more well-rounded game as a result. Improbably, the Pistons are 9th in scoring offense and the Mavs are 9th in scoring defense.

I'll wait a minute for you to clean the coffee off your monitor.

Both teams had success with their original style and they've maintained its best elements without prodding from the coach. But the aggressive new emphasis on what was lacking has pushed them both to new heights, at least in the regular season. So unless you've got an all-around stud coach like Popovich, I think it makes sense for a team to make a coaching switch when they've plateaued with the current regime.

How do you know when a team's plateaued? Well, you just know. We can all sense it. Owners and GMs can, too. And while it can be hard to fire a coach in the midst of a good run, it might be worth it if you know exactly who you want to hire next. In the case of Detroit and Dallas, the popular coaches also wanted to call it quits, so management was off the hook for replacing them. But even when that's not the case, it could be the right call. Imagine if the Kings had sucked it up and fired Adelman after the first (or second) series loss to the Lakers and replaced him with a fiery defensive-minded leader. I wonder just how good they could've been. Maybe no one could get strong defense out of Webber or Stojakovic, but they only way they were going to win it all was if they brought someone in to try. If the Suns make another conference finals and come up short again, it says here that firing D'Antoni and bringing in a defensive mind will be the only way to push that team over the top. Don't say I didn't warn you, Phoenix.

Just know that Avery Johnson's unlikely to be available for quite some time.