Graduated

Hi friends,

If anyone enjoyed this blog and likes left-minded politics as well as some sports and pop-culture talk, please see my new home, http://punkassblog.com. I'm over there pretty much all the time now.

If you hate those things, well, thanks for reading about hoops.

Best-
marc

The NBA weekend that changed everything

If you were paying attention this weekend, a lot of assumptions were called into question across the league. For example:

Assumption #1: The Spurs are just flat-out better than the Mavs, especially on defense.

Color me guilty of that one. The Mavs proved several things during their confidence-building 92-86 win in San Antonio on Friday. Dirk proved he could score on Bowen down low. Howard proved that putting a "traditional" power forward on him, even one as good as Duncan, can result in 15 first-quarter points being rung up on your a**. Terry proved he could fight through San Antonio screens to stay with Parker and disrupt the pick-and-roll plays that have killed the Mavs in the past. And the Mavs proved they can gut out a close in on the road down the stretch.

Dallas shot over 50% on the night, the Spurs less than 40%. The Mavs got to the line more, turned the ball over less, and forced the Spurs into too many long-range shots. Will Dallas catch the Spurs in the standings? Probably not. But if they're tied up going into the last game, Houston will have a chance to spoil San Antonio's regular season by ringing up a division loss on the Spurs and handing the Mavs the tiebreaker. Either way, though, the Mavs staked a real claim to legitimacy on Friday night.

Assumption #2: Detroit should breeze through the East.

On Friday night, without Rip Hamilton, the Pistons dropped a roadie to the hapless Magic. Hamilton's far from their best starter, but with just one of their critical cogs missing, the Pistons proved vulnerable. As we mentioned earlier in this space, if any one player goes down in Detroit, Cleveland and New Jersey will be waiting to pounce. Flip may want to rest up heading down the stretch.

Meanwhile, the Cavs went into the Meadowlands and dispatched those media darlings in New Jersey on Saturday. The Pistons will have to face one of these teams in the second round and the other (or Miami) in the conference finals. Cleveland's the hottest team in the league right now and they have a chance to scare the Pistons in Detroit on Wednesday. The Nets split the season series with the Pistons and can expose Rip Hamilton with either Carter or Jefferson. The East playoffs may be worth watching this year. Go figure.

Assumption #3: The Suns are the only other contender in the West.

Phoenix is 8-9 since their recent 11-game winning streak, and they got popped by lowly Seattle this weekend, a team John Holliger pointed out is actually the worst defensive team of all time. Ouch.

All Sacramento has done is waltz into San Antonio and wax the Spurs, beat the Clippers twice in a week, and move into 7th place and a matchup with the Suns in the first round.

Dunno about you, but I'm betting on the Kings in that matchup right now.

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Yep, just when you think the playoff picture has come into focus, teams like the Mavs and Kings make a move and muddy it back up. Stay tuned for a raucous postseason.

How you know Bill Simmons has gone insane

"Meanwhile, with everyone finally healthy, the Clippers seem to be hitting their potential. Nobody in the league has a better eight-man nucleus; nobody has more options down the stretch; nobody can give you more looks."

The Clippers are hitting their potential, yes. But let's break the rest of this statement down, shall we?

1) Nobody has a better 8 man nucleus.

Clips      Spurs    Pistons    Mavs       Suns

Brand      Duncan   Billups    Nowitzki   Nash
Cassell    Parker   R. Wallace Howard     Marion
Maggette   Ginobili B. Wallace Terry      Diaw
Mobley     Bowen    Prince     Stackhouse Bell
Kaman      Mohammed Hamilton   Dampier    Thomas
Livingston Finley   McDyess    Harris     Barbosa
Radmonovic Horry    Evans      Daniels    James
Q. Ross    Barry    Delk       Diop       T. Thomas

Is anybody blown away by what the Clippers bring to the table compared to the other teams? Detroit scares me more 1-5, Dallas has equally talented starters and has a much nastier 6-8, the Spurs run out Robert Horry as #7 compared to Vlad Radmonovic, who might be more like #6 for the Clips. The Clips have the Suns beat 1-8, sure, but everybody else can make the claim that their playoff roster is better. So at least 3 teams could argue they have a better 8-man rotation once you actually stop and compare the rosters. And why did Bill pick 8? Was he that infatuated with former SMU star Quinton Ross? I sure hope not.

2) Nobody has more options down the stretch.

Err, okay. Let's refer to the rosters again. Would you mind having Billups or Hamilton or Rasheed Wallace or even Tayshaun Prince driving to the hoop or taking a big 3 for the win? What if you could have Dirk, Terry, Stackhouse, Howard, Daniels, and Harris on the floor with the game on the line? All of them have pulled off a buzzer-beating play already. And don't forget about Big-Shot Bob, Duncan, Ginobili, and the secret MVP of the league, Tony Parker. Are you telling me Brand and Cassell make up for all of that? Mobley is far from clutch, and Maggette's never had a chance to prove it.

3) Nobody can give you more looks.

I take it Simmons means the Clips can go either big or small, offense or defense, down the stretch; he's touting their versatility. In response, please allow me to present the Dallas Mavericks, the team most likely to dispatch the Clips in 5 games in round 1. Dallas can go big: Damp, Diop, Dirk, Howard, and Daniels. Wow. Dallas can go small: Terry, Harris, Stack, Howard, and Dirk. Dallas can go for the D: Harris, Daniels, Howard, Dirk (yes, he's fine now), and Damp. Dallas can go for big points: Terry, Stackhouse, Daniels, Howard, and Dirk. None of this includes Van Horn, either, who is out for the year.

The Spurs, meanwhile, can use Van Exel, Parker, Ginobili, Horry, and Duncan. Or Mohammed, Duncan, Horry, Bowen, and Ginobili. Or Parker, Ginobili, Finley, Horry, and Duncan. Whatever.

The Pistons and Suns aren't so fortunate, sure.

Final Tally

Every one of these statements is egregiously false. The Clips can hang with their top 8, but they aren't in the class of DET, SA, or DAL, and they certainly aren't the most clutch or versatile, especially compared to the Mavs and Spurs.

Three strikes and you're out, Bill.

Can the Mavs rattle the Spurs?

Tuning up for their expected second-round meeting, the Mavs and Spurs will duke it out tonight in the shadow of the Alamo. Dallas, as usual, comes to the court without a full complement of players. Of course, they've been missing 1-2 of their top 8 players for nearly every game this season, so what else is new?

The one absent component who should return by playoff time is Devin Harris, he of the 20-point 4th quarter outburst against the Spurs in the lone Mavs win against them this season. Harris is Tony Parker-lite, and the Mavs just aren't the same without him. Still, no more excuses; they need to demonstrate the ability to scare the Spurs a little tonight.

Thinking back to the last time the Spurs lost a series, even that one appeared to be the Spurs' for the taking. San Antonio beat the ancient all-star Lakers squad twice in Texas before blowing the next 2 in LA, but after Duncan hit what appeared to be the winning shot in game 5 with less than a second left, Derek Fisher killed them. He stole the game with a sick fadeaway and the Spurs couldn't recover emotionally.

The Spurs don't lose their cool very often, but when they do, they lack the ability to get it back. There's no fiery teammate who gets in everyone's faces and challenges them to rebound from adversity. There's no coach willing to put his heart on his sleeve and give energy to his team. Maybe Manu Ginobili has what it takes to assume the role of motivator, but do you really see him making an emotional impact on Duncan? Or Bowen?

Rockets fans remember what it's like to have Jason Terry steal a win -- hell, a series -- and the Mavs have the capacity to be a thorn in the Spurs' collective side. Winning a game in SA, tonight or in the playoffs, won't rattle the Spurs. Stealing one the Spurs had in the bag just might.

Failing that, expect the stoic Spurs to calmly end the Mavs' season one more time.

NBA draft preview: Noah v. Thomas v. Aldridge

Another season of college ball has come and gone, and NBA scouts are thoroughly assessing the potential of several NBA prospects. This will be the first season high-schoolers won't be eligible for entry into the draft, meaning the thin crop has teams nervous about finding a player with the talent to fit their draft position. TexasNBA.com will be updating our overall top 10 soon, but the three most-discussed players following the tournament have been Florida's do-it-all 7-footer Joakim Noah, LSU's jumping jack PF Tyrus Thomas, and Texas' smooth-shooting post man LaMarcus Aldridge. None of them have officially declared for the draft yet, but with guys like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant likely to hit the market next year, this may be their best chance to lock up a spot in the top 5 of the draft. In fact, they could easily go 1-2-3 in some order this summer. To help the GMs out there avoid a mistake like, oh, I dunno, Marvin Williams over Chris Paul, let's sort out what that order should be.

One caveat for all 3 players: strength is an issue. Each has the height and frame to play the 4 in the NBA, but none have the bulk -- yet. This impacts the play of one more than the others, but I don't see anything that leads me to believe that a year of NBA conditioning won't get each of them into the right weight class, so I'm not going to hold it against any of them... well, 2 of them, anyway.

Noah
By halftime he'd set the record for most blocks in the championship game, so to say he's an instinctive weak-side defender goes without saying, huh? He's an intense, competitive kid, and his teammates point to his energy as a motivating force for the team. He's also got a wacky streak, as evidenced by his complaints about the NBA game being boring, but if your Dad was a French tennis-turned-pop star, you might be a touch unusual yourself. Noah doesn't need the money, either, so I'm sure he feels free to speak his mind. He passes quite well for a big and finishes well at the basket. Unfortunately, his shot looks like a slow child imitating Reggie Miller, and it's going to need some work at the next level. If you're a thin PF, you need range to 18 feet to be effective in the league, so this should be the major focus of any draft prep; right now I wouldn't trust him outside of the paint. Of all 3 players, Noah has the highest floor. At the very least, if you had to play him in an NBA game today, he'd be a taller, quicker Najera: an energetic sub who does a little bit of everything. Whether he becomes a franchise cornerstone depends on his willingness to develop a varied offensive game.

Thomas
He's the measurables stud. His frame and vertical leap are off the charts, and his alley-oop finishes and posterizing blocks will leave scouts salivating. I like his man defense more than the other two, and obviously he's no slouch at helping out, either. The kid has a nose for the ball; it almost seems to find him. His major albatross will be the Stromile Swift comparisons. Is Thomas just another LSU pogo stick with no basketball IQ? He lost time due to an injury, as well, and unless he plays a full sophomore season, scouts will also have to wonder if he's got durability issues. He's the biggest unknown of the 3 players. He's just a freshman, didn't play a full season, and was the third fiddle on his college team.

Aldridge
He's almost got the "Dream Shake" down already -- when he posts up for a fadeaway turnaround, he's unblockable. And he hits a very high percentage of them. He's a smart kid, a good kid, a decent rebounder, and he faces up from about 18 feet reliably. He's by far the most offensively polished of the forwards and could probably average 12ppg in the league right now. Still, he's the guy who could be hurt most by his lack of strength; if he can't get position 6-8 feet from the basket for his turnaround, he'll be too far away to get it off. He's also the least passionate, most passive personality of the 3. Coach Rick Barnes spent all season trying to develop Aldridge's aggressiveness, but it never really stuck. Barnes also worked to develop Aldridge's sky hook, but despite its success when he used it, Aldridge never felt comfortable with it and trotted it out only occasionally as a result. This suggests he may lack the work ethic to improve his game. If Aldridge just wants to stick to what already feels comfortable, who's to say he'll ever get any better?

Ranking the players
I think you have to go with the above order: Noah, Thomas, Aldridge. Noah can help you right now, he's sharp and passionate, and he has a chance to be somewhere between a Tayshaun Prince and a Ben Wallace on defense. If his offense comes along, he'll average 15 easy, and if he ever gets to 20, he'll be a franchise player. Would I be thrilled he's the best I could do at #1 if I won the NBA lottery? No. But he'll do. Thomas and Aldridge both scare me. I like Thomas's athleticism and defensive instincts, and I like Aldridge's smooth offensive game, but neither look like they'll develop into complete players to me. Still, in this draft, taking a guy who has a chance to dominate one side of the ball will have to do, so give me the athletic freak with a little more fire in Thomas. Aldridge would have to prove he's got a mean streak for me to consider moving him up, and the poor kid's just too much of a puppy dog to even be able to fake it.

Much to the NBA's chagrin, Noah's the least likely to leave, but if he does, scoop him up at #1 and don't look back.

Stoudemire cursed by TexasNBA.com

You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, and Amare Stoudemire's shutting it down for the season. Apologies to the Stoudemire family for jinxing their meal ticket; after the way we hexed the Bulls, Bucks, and Mavs this year, we should've known better than to jump on the Amare bandwagon.

The Webber Syndrome strikes the East Coast

Jiminy jeepers. Everybody -- and I mean everybody -- is ready to proclaim the Nets a title contender just because they've strung together a few wins in a row. Okay, sure, they've strung together 12 wins in a row, and that's impressive. The streak includes victories over Detroit, Dallas, the Lakers, the Grizzlies, and the Heat, too, so props for those notches on the belt. Even better, the April schedule for the Nets gets gooey-soft with home games against ATL, CHA, CLE, PHL, BOS, and NY and roadies against MIL, CHI, BOS, and PHI. The Nets will be favored in every one of those games and could end the season winning 21 of their last 22 or some such thing. The talking heads will have a field day touting them as a dark horse candidate to claim a ring, but would any of the "real" teams in the league fear a series with the Nets?

Certainly, Jason Kidd still has to be taken seriously at the point. While his quickness has suffered with age, few teams in the league would be sad to have him running the floor. Jefferson isn't as impossible to score on as gets credit for, but his offense is vastly improved. He's essentially a 20 ppg scorer on 50% shooting, and those are few and far between in these "please, dude, can you at least make 4 of 10 tonight?" days of the NBA. Jefferson also passes well, but not as well as Vince Carter. I doubt too many people would argue that Kidd isn't the team MVP, but they win 60% of their games when Kidd plays and 66% of their games when Carter plays. When he makes an effort and remembers to drive instead of lob fade-aways from 3, he's an unguardable beast who makes other players better. Much as he's known for soft defense, he and Jefferson appear to be on level ground: opposing SGs and SFs each average a PER of 14.5, which is below the league average. Given that both Carter and Jefferson play more than 37 mpg, the responsibility for guarding opposing wing players falls squarely on the two of them.

As good as those three are on the perimeter, the New Jersey frontcourt is lacking. C Nenad Krstic wins the Juwan Howard Award for crappiest rebounds per minute; he can't even muster 7 in over 30 mpg. Then again, Cliff Robinson and Jason Collins average 50 minutes combined. Rebounds combined? 8. Yowtch. The "big three" make up for it, though, and the Nets' 40.8 rebounds per game falls in the middle of the NBA pack. Improbably, Detroit averages even fewer boards than the Nets, though they each outrebounded the other twice this year.

The bench sucks out loud, too. Tell me who from this list you'd covet for your team:
-Clifford Robinson
-Jacque Vaughn
-Zoran Planinic
-Your Mom
Yeah. Lame jokes aside, that motley crew makes the Pistons' subs look like the All-Star reserves. Brutal.

So they have little up front, nothing off the bench, and 3 studs. Can 3 studs win a championship? Michael, Scottie, and Dennis/Horace would say yes. Unfortunately, while Kidd and Jefferson do everything Scottie plus the Chicago PFs did (and then some), no one's going to confuse Vince Carter for MJ.

That's the bottom line, Nets fans: your best player lacks heart. He's proven as likely to fold as bail his team out, and no one's ever accused Vince of putting basketball first. When you need a play to win a game, would you rather lean on Chauncey Billups or Vince Carter?

The Nets suffer from Chris Webber Syndrome: their best player is a statistical monster that can't get it done at crunch time. Mike Bibby bailed out the Kings from time to time, just like Kidd can, but if your go-to guy isn't clutch, eventually it'll bite you in the ass. Just ask Sacramento fans.

So the Nets are the new Kings. All hail the Nets.

Making sense of the league: ouija board, anyone?

First off, let me apologize to all Suns fans for jinxing the sh*t out of Amare's return. Once I proclaimed them the Western Conference faves, Stoudemire laid 2 eggs before returning to the sideline with knee swelling. They also got punked hard by Detroit yesterday, and Chauncey Billups abused Nash on both ends of the floor. The Pistons have to be rooting for the Suns to make it out of the West; Detroit's got the one guy who can neutralize the Phoenix MVP, and if Amare doesn't suit up, the Pistons will rule the paint.

The Mavs also lost to Detroit last week, albeit in a more closely-contested game that the Pistons stretched out in the last minute on free throws. Having dropped every game they've played in '06 vs the Suns, Spurs, and Pistons, it's easy to say that Dallas has firmly cemented their status as pretender to the throne. Before you drop the hammer on them, though, remember they just got Josh Howard back from injury and Devin Harris is still on the sidelines. Yesterday, Howard harrassed Carmelo Anthony into a 9-24 brick-fest while dropping 20 on the other end. The Mavericks are obviously more formidable with their second-best player in the line-up, and once they get their underrated PG sparkplug back, they'll be scarier in April than they were in March.

The Spurs are a few wins away from wrapping up the top seed in the West, but it's anything but business as usual for San Antonio: has anyone noticed they have a new leading scorer? That's right, Tony Parker has moved a full half-point ahead of Tim Duncan for the team title despite Duncan registering 3 20/10 games in their last 4. This is a good news/bad news situation for San Antonio. That Parker can fill the void created by Duncan's injury is an exciting development; that Duncan's average has slipped below 19 ppg indicates he may not be able to dominate the paint when it matters most. By the time the Spurs fight their way to the Finals, will Duncan have enough left to battle the Pistons? Will Chauncey Billups be able to dismantle Parker like he did Nash this weekend?

Several folks have said all year that the Pistons are the clear favorites to win the title. Sure, they have a ring they lucked into against an ancient, injury-ravaged Lakers team that hobbled into the Finals, and they played the Spurs tough last year, but I've been loathe to accept that they're the best of the best. As much as Billups is underrated, players like Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince escape scrutiny for the holes in their games because they own a ring. Their bench is NBDL-esque, too, and since the East may be a tougher fight, their lack of depth could become a factor.

So where does all of this leave us as far as the title picture is concerned? Bloody f*ck if I know. The Mavs seem the easiest to discount, but the injuries could be masking a sleeping giant. The Suns without Amare might not escape a 7-gamer against a tough defensive team, but new 2-way weapons like Diaw may surprise us in the postseason. The Spurs have an elite PG but may see Duncan fade as they burrow deeper into the playoffs. The Pistons seem the favorite, but one injury could doom them, too.

Bring me the darts, Jeeves. Beats the hell out of trying to make an expert prediction.

Are the Texas teams just playing in Phoenix's sandbox?

"Amare Stoudamire can't be a game-changing force until next year."
"Amare Stoundamire will play tentatively."
"Amare Stoudamire will wreck the Suns' rotation chemistry."

If you uttered any of the above statements this season, you've been officially served. Last night, for the first time in almost a year, Stoudamire took the court, and he dominated. In just 19 minutes, he rang up 20 and 9, throwing in 2 blocks for kicks. Does anyone still doubt the Suns are better off with him in the mix?

It would be unwise for D'Anteethi to start ringing up 35-40 minute outings for the human pogo stick, but even if he comes off the bench for 25 minutes a night, he could easily average 15 and 8. Imagine Phoenix trotting out a crunch-time line-up of Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Amare Stoudamire. The only defensive weak link is Nash, and Stoudamire is an ideal help defender. The only offensive weak link is Bell, and that moniker's based more on past reputation than 14+ ppg he's averaging on 45% shooting.

The party line on the Suns' chances for a championship usually involve Dallas and San Antonio "beating each other up" in the second round, implying that either team would beat the Suns if they didn't have to wail on each other first. For the first time in the Nash era, I'm not sure that's true anymore.

If Tim Duncan didn't have plantar fasciitis, I doubt I'd even watch the NBA playoffs; what would be the point of suffering through round after agonizing round of boring Spurs dominance? [Editor's note: Marc is incapable of not watching the NBA playoffs, no matter what it does to his blood pressure.] But his foot is hurting, and it seems to be hindering his ability to dominate. Honestly, he hasn't got a chance in hell of keeping up with Stoudamire on one foot, and with Diaw and Bell all over Parker and Ginobili, we have to admit that the Suns have a real shot to outplay the Spurs in a series. The Mavs recently lost at home to the Suns without Amare, and the Nash/Stoudamire pick and roll was so devastating against Dallas last year, it's tough to imagine the Suns being huge underdogs in that series, either.

For all the talk of Spurs and Mavs this year, for all the overblown hype surrounding Nash and the Phoenix coaching staff, maybe it really is the year of the Sun. What with all this global warming going on, it kinda makes sense, don't it?