Friday, November 11, 2005

PF numbers tell the story

So I'll get off my stat kick soon, but following up on a friend's request, I dug up team production at the power forward position, both in terms of how a team rates at the 4 and how they defend it. Public perception holds that this is the deepest, most star-studded position in the NBA, and I'm inclined to agree. Duncan, KG, Dirk, Gasol, Brand, K-Mart, Randolph, Webber, and Boozer are entrenched, and up-and-comers like Dwight Howard, Okafor, and Bogut play there for the majority of their minutes. So how do teams stack up at the toughest position to play night-in, night-out?

These numbers are compiled from the team pages on 82games.com and are based on Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating. The Wikipedia has a thorough breakdown of his formula, if you're curious. Remember that it accounts for both offensive and defensive numbers, as well as turnovers.

The LA Clippers suck less this year, and much attention has been focused on their new backcourt of irresponsible shooters, Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley. However, the team is actually underperforming vs. the league average at the PG and SG positions. Where they shine is at power forward. The Clips are leading the league with a power forward PER of 27.1 and holding opposing PFs to 13.8, slightly below league average. They're getting out PERed (purred?) at point, off guard, and center by a wide margin, and their SFs only outperform the opposition by 1.2. Elton Brand owns the PF slot, though, and that certainly helps explain their strong start.

Remember when the Knicks had a roster full of undersized power forwards? Remember when they dumped them for a slew of underachieving centers? Well, now they rate an NBA-worst 8.9 PER at PF. The Knickers cough up a PER of 21.9 for their opponents, too, so it's an all-around crap fest at the 4-spot in MSG. I'd say Isiah wishes he had a guy like Mike Sweetney back, but I'm guessing he's never heard of the Player Efficiency Rating. I'm not even sure he can spell "Efficiency." Or "Isiah" for that matter. But I bet he can spot one in the mirror.

Phoenix gives up an atrocious PER of 22.1 while the guys in their unis score a 14.7. Seattle's the only team doing an even worse job defending the big guys: they give up 25.2 on a nightly basis. That's about what All-NBA first-teamer Dirk Nowitzki averaged last year, meaning every night they take the court, some random PF lights them up like the Blonde Bomber.

The *only* team with a winning record that's giving up more than they get at PF is Golden State. The only teams with a losing record and a better PF PER than their opponents are Portland and Sacramento.

A full rundown of PF PER numbers by team, with theirs/opponents:

ATL: 10.0/20.0 (-10, ouch)
BOS: 11.0/09.9 (who's guarding the 4 like a beast?)
CHA: 12.5/16.4
CHI: 14.0/11.3 (Chandler effect)
CLE: 20.2/19.0 (Gooden effect, unfortunately)
DAL: 16.3/14.7
DEN: 14.9/12.0
DET: 16.0/12.2
GSW: 13.1/15.9
HOU: 11.1/11.6
IND: 14.7/13.4
LAC: 27.1/13.8
LAL: 16.1/12.8
MEM: 20.9/16.5
MIA: 15.6/17.1
MIL: 18.2/15.8
MIN: 23.3/20.4 (I thought KG played D)
NJN: 14.2/12.9
NOK: 09.7/18.4 (ouch)
NYK: 08.9/21.9 (still ugly)
ORL: 12.8/19.3
PHI: 14.7/16.4
PHO: 14.7/22.1
POR: 20.2/12.4
SAC: 18.8/12.2
SAN: 15.9/15.5
SEA: 14.5/25.2
TOR: 17.2/18.1 (need more D from Bosh)
UTA: 21.6/16.5
WAS: 17.5/16.8


It appears you can't underestimate the value of a serviceable power forward.

5 Comments:

At 2:12 PM, Blogger Ben said...

Your friend is one smart son-of-a-gun.

 
At 2:20 PM, Blogger Marc said...

I would know that for certain if he proved it with a proper post on some sort of NBA-type blog.

 
At 10:43 PM, Blogger Ashley said...

Is he smart enough to spell my little Next-Step-in-Human-Evolution-Emeka's last name right?

 
At 11:33 PM, Blogger Marc said...

Gee, looks right to me.

Revisionist history rules!!

 
At 8:31 AM, Blogger Ashley said...

Cheater.

 

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