Thursday, November 10, 2005

Texas-sized stats

Numbers matter, and while I try to talk about some of the things I see that don't show up in box scores, some very intriguing stats are also seldom reported. For more useful numbers than just PPG and the like, make sure to visit 82games.com; those guys make number-crunching cool. Cooler, anyway.

Tracy McGrady's injury has skewed any Rockets-related numbers thus far, but without him, it appears that the best lineup for Houston is Alston-Wesley-Anderson-Howard-Ming. Both times that unit was on the floor, it outscored its opponents (+7 overall). They didn't shoot that well (.438) but rebounded at 117% of the Rockets' norm.

Stromile Swift has a +/- rating of 0.00. So far, it honestly hasn't mattered whether or not he's on the floor; the Rockets are scoring at defending at exactly the same clip. However, the Rockets are getting outscored by 13.5 points per 48 minutes when Yao sits, though I'm sure that would be lower if Tracy were playing.

San Antonio, meanwhile, is getting outscored 117-147 when Tony Parker rides the pine. That should frighten little children anywhere near the Alamo; all that talk of Van Exel helping is a total lie. The team is +11.8 points per 48 minutes when Nick sits and +10.7 when Udrih isn't stinking up the gym. Seriously. So the Spurs need Parker -- apparently even more than Duncan, who has a positive +/- ratio (+7.4) but has still watched his team outscore the oppposition 110-108 when he rests.

Using John Hollinger's PER system, which calculates a Player's Efficiency Rating with a thorough formula weighting and compiling everything from boards to missed shots to turnovers, we quantifiably demonstrate the defensive value of Bowen and Ginobli. An average PER is around 15, and the Spurs hold opposing shooting guards to a PER of 6.9. That's bah-rutal.

Dallas happens to shoot jumpers 65% of the time compared to just 61% for San Antonio. This pales in comparison to Houston, though, which shoots jumpers on 70% of their possessions. Yikes. While the Mavs have seen opponents draw 15 charges to Dallas' 9, the Mavs have thrown 11 fewer "bad passes" and given up two fewer FT attempts per game than they're getting.

Knowing really is half the battle, ain't it?

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