NBA Pick 'em: Take 2

My last foray into the world of NBA handicapping resulted in a 1-4 record, so you’re probably asking yourself why I’d be so foolish as to put myself out there once again. Well, in the one season I gambled on NFL games picked NFL games for entertainment purposes only, I came out ahead only because I picked every game on the schedule. I lost some "sure things" and caught some coin-flips, so it generally balanced out. Thus, in an attempt to test the same waters in the NBA, I will endeavor to pick the entire slate of Friday night games, but this week I’m going to concentrate on the over/under. There’s much more data available to assist my good ol’ basketball intuition, and, really, I could pick barn-dancing match-ups and it wouldn’t matter. My dear readers tune in largely to cackle over my swings and misses.

Without further delay, my picks for tonight’s NBA action:

Bobcats at Sixers: o/u 199
Gerald Wallace appears to have remembered that he’s a one-dimensional role player masquerading as a “leading scorer” for an NBA team (down to 15.2ppg), so the season totals for Charlotte make them look a lot better on offense than they’re playing right now.
under 199

Nets at Cavs: o/u 194.5
We all know the Cavs score more at home than on the road, but, surprisingly, the Nets score 4 ppg more on the road than at home, and that makes it easy to take the over.
over 194.5

Nuggets at Heat: o/u 194
Tough one. Miami rocks the house at home, but Denver drops through the floor on the road. Just 6 days ago, these 2 tangled in the Mile High City, and the Nugs eked out a 101-99 victory. The second time teams face off, scores often drop.
under 194

Mavs at Grizzlies: o/u 179
Yes, Memphis leads the league in ppg defense. Yes, Dallas has been playing tougher D lately. Yes, they are playing for the second time (see above rationalization). No way these 2 drop this low, though, not after the 204 points they tossed in last week. We all know the Mavs secretly love to run, and Memphis seems to oblige them (and only them).
over 179

Lakers at Bulls: o/u 195
Heinrich’s probably back, but he was struggling before Dirk cracked him in the mouth (7 and 9 pts in last 2 games). The Lakeshow has been scoring well, but the Bulls score 3.5 ppg less at home, and I just don’t see the Lakers scoring enough to crack 195 combined.
under 195

Celtics at Spurs: o/u 191
The Spurs are happy to coast after blowing people out.
under 191

Sonics at Jazz: o/u 187.5
Utah either scores above 90 or below 80. Everybody scores 100 against the Sonics, who give up a league-worst 104.3 ppg. Given that the Jazz dropped a hundred on the Lakers, I think they can scratch out 95 or so in a loss to Seattle.
over 187.5

Hornets at Blazers: o/u 178
It’s a mighty battle of suckitude, and the Blazers only cracked 90 once in the last five games. The Hornets haven’t done it in their last four.
under 178

Knicks at Suns: o/u 207.5
Come on. Sure, the Suns might get 110, but that means the Knicks would still need 98 to cover if they do.
under 207.5

Pistons at Warriors: o/u 190
Man. The very definition of a coin toss right here. The Warriors have been dropping 100s all over the place, but since giving up 120 to the Wiz in a loss, the Pistons have been putting the smack down. I guess I’m more of a believer in Chauncey and co. taking over this game than not.
under 190

Tune in tomorrow to see the results. And try not to snicker.